United States: Who Could Have Guessed? Multiple Sponsors File for Prediction Market Based ETFs
By: Thoreau A. Bartmann, Todd S. Fishman, Kevin R. Gustafson, and Sarah V. Riddell
In the last week, multiple ETF sponsors filed for first-of-their-kind ETFs based on event contracts tied to political outcomes. These funds would invest in swaps referencing binary event contracts—or directly in the contracts themselves—tied to which party controls the House and Senate in 2026, and which party wins the 2028 Presidential Election.
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